Text Box: This forecast was made possible by generous funding from the Lake County Winegrape Commission and American AgCredit.
 
      Lake County Forecast       Phone 530-342-1700 
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westernweathergroup.com Saturday November 26, 2011 issued 7:30am   by Forecaster Marc Walsh
Text Box: HIGHLIGHTS: A dry pattern generally prevailing for the next couple of weeks. But... a cold trough dropping down over the west late next week (exactly where is still in doubt) will bring cooling a slight chance of showers.
Text Box: Short Term Weather Discussion: High pressure aloft continued to build over California last night. The ridge axis has moved east of the state this morning as a trough approaches from the west. This trough will spread some mid/high clouds over the North State today and then temporarily flatten the ridge a little tomorrow as it splits and moves inland well to the north. Our ridge will rebuild late Monday into Tuesday behind the trough. Thus, in general we have high pressure dominating our weather with a dry / stable pattern conducive to night & morning valley fog formation. Daytime temperatures should be seasonably mild in Lake County (mainly 60s) through early next week. The local valley fog this morning in Lake County should burn off by 10-11am. Mid/high clouds tonight should hinder valley fog formation to some degree for tomorrow morning. .
FORECAST SPECIFICS
Weather Max/Min Dew Pts POPs Amounts Winds
TODAY (am) Valley fog→Pt Cldy 55-65 35-45 0% none Var-SE 0-10
(pm) Partly Cloudy SE-S 3-12
TONIGHT (vals) Partly Cloudy 32-40 32-38 0% none Var-S 0-5
(rdgs) 40-45 S-SW 3-12
SUNDAY Partly Cloudy 55-65 32-45 0% none SE-SW 3-12
Text Box: Extended Forecast Discussion: There is a general consensus among the medium range models that a Gulf of Alaska trough will move inland over the Pac NW late Tuesday & then either slide SE'ward through the Great Basin or dive southward right over CA eventually forming a cutoff low either over the Desert SW or directly over the Central State late Wed/Thu/Fri. For now favor the "more eastward" trajectory which would keep us dry but bring strong offshore flow (NE-E winds) to the North & Central State late next week. IF the trough drops down over the state (as the European model continues to show), we won't get the strong offshore flow and we'll have a chance of showers... and it'll be cold). We can't rule out that possibility yet although the U.S. medium range models are sticking to their guns showing the trough and cutoff low developing too far east for any precip chances. For the most part models agree (after late this week) that ridging will remain dominate along the West Coast for the first week of December.
EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOK                          
    Mon 11/28 Tue 11/29 Wed 11/30 Thu 12/1 Fri 12/2   Trends  Sat 12/3 - Mon 12/5
Weather M Sunny M Sunny Partly Cldy Partly Cldy Partly Cldy   Max Temps: Near to above normal
Max T 60-68 61-69 55-65 50-60 48-62   Min Temps: Near to below normal
Min T 38-46 32-50 32-45 30-45 25-45   Precipitation: Unlikely
POP 10%(early) 0% 10%(pm) 10% 10%   Wx Pattern: Ridge up the West Coast to western Canada, cutoff low over Desert SW, trof over GLs
Amounts Tr - .05 none Tr - .05 Tr - .10 Tr - .10    
Winds NW 3-12 NW-N 3-12 W→N 5-20 NE-E 10-30 SE→W 3-12    
Yesterday across Lake County…          This morning across Lake County…  
Avg Max: 53°F Range: (51 - 57)  Warmest: Kelseyville,   Avg Min: 37°F Range: (32 - 43)  Coldest: Guenoc Valley    
               
POP = Probability of Precipitation
Lake County Weather Station Network
Daily Meteorological Summary
Friday, November 25, 2011
26-Nov-11
Temperature Avg Avg WIND Precipitation Continuous This Morning's
Max time Min time Avg DewPt RH Avg Gust Gust 24hr Season Hours w/Temps Min Temp
      ºF occur ºF occur ºF ºF % mph mph Dir In. In. 70-85° >95°F °F (6am)
Upper Lake 53.1 1504 46.4 2346 48.6 48.5 100 1.4 6.8 S 0.07 5.50 0.0 0.0 40.4
Scotts Valley 52.4 1251 41.8 621 46.5 45.4 96 0.7 5.8 SSE 0.06 5.59 0.0 0.0 41.1
Kelseyville 56.8 1546 40.6 544 46.7 43.4 88 1.4 8.8 E 0.07 3.95 0.0 0.0 42.7
Kelseyville South 53.0 1448 43.1 624 47.0 45.2 94 0.3 6.8 SSE 0.03 3.79 0.0 0.0 43.1
Bell Hill West 52.4 1143 n/a 1908 46.0 43.0 90 0.4 7.8 ESE 0.04 4.30 0.0 0.0 n/a
Red Hills 50.6 1450 37.5 2354 44.3 42.1 92 1.8 8.5 WNW 0.05 4.63 0.0 0.0 36.3
Red Hills 2 55.6 1445 35.8 2311 44.3 43.2 96 2.0 8.4 WSW 0.06 4.89 0.0 0.0 33.5
Red Hills 3 not available n/a
Red Hills Lower 52.2   31.7                       33.3
Middletown 52.9 1500 37.0 2359 45.1 43.6 95 1.1 7.9 N 0.00 5.88 0.0 0.0 32.7
Guenoc Valley 54.3 1518 35.5 2341 45.8 42.9 90 0.8 6.6 SSW 0.00 2.67 0.0 0.0 31.9
Napa Valley Basin 56.7 1403 34.1 2205 45.7 ----- ----- 0.2 8.8 NE 0.00 3.57 0.0 0.0 30.9
Pope Valley 55.1 1407 36.2 2151 46.4 45.1 96 0.2 6.1 ENE 0.00 2.44 0.0 0.0 36.0
Cow Mountain 56.4 2354 39.2 1 45.0 ----- ----- 4.8 17.0 WSW ----- ----- ----- --- 56.3
Morgan Valley 49.3 2357 42.4 643 45.3 39.7 93 1.9 22.8 WNW 0.01 4.60 ----- --- 35.5
** Morgan Valley sensors on high tower