Text Box: "This forecast is brought to you by the Lake County Wine Grape Commission and the Lake County Fruit Frost Trust Fund, which is supported by the Lake County Dept. of Agriculture, the University of California Cooperative Extension, the Lake County Air Quality Management District, the University of California IPM project, Lake County Farmer's Finest, and local agricultural support businesses. "
 
      Lake County Frost Forecast           530-342-1700
  Thursday May 15, 2008  email: forecaster@westernwx.com 
        Issued: 2pm           by Forecaster Marc Walsh
Text Box: HIGHLIGHTS: Clear & mild to warm (where it remains breezy) overnight. Sunny & hotter tomorrow w/lighter winds. A little cooler tomorrow night as winds go calm. Just as hot Saturday; almost as hot Sunday (variable high clouds); not as hot Monday, and finally... noticeably cooler Tue/Wed. Warming trend later next week (very warm, not oppressively hot)
Text Box: Weather & Frost Discussion: An unseasonably strong upper level ridge of high pressure is really pumped up along the West Coast and will push local temperatures to record or at least near record levels this afternoon. A strong surface high remains over the Great Basin, causing moderate offshore flow at the surface and those breezy NE-E'erly winds, which are rather dry and do help make it feel reasonably comfortable despite the heat. They also resulted in ridiculously warm overnight temperatures in many locations last night, like 72°F at Kelseyville and 77°F at Napa Valley Basin. That was by far (like 10 to 15°) the warmest overnight readings in May that this forecaster has seen in Lake County going back 10 years. Offshore flow is forecast to continue overnight, perhaps weakening slightly. We could see some areas again remaining very warm, while some valley locations (where winds die off) cool into the lower 50s. Offshore flow is forecast to weaken tomorrow, thus the winds will die and you will then really be able to feel the heat. With nearly calm winds tomorrow night, overnight lows in the local valleys should be able to cool into the low/mid 50s across the board - but it will remain balmy on the ridges. High pressure aloft is forecast to peak in strength tomorrow, but weaken only slightly over the weekend. Thus, we may see highs drop a degree or two (barely negligible). This mid May heat wave is ultimately going to end up as one for the record books. Some relief from the heat is expected early next week.
TONIGHT'S FORECASTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
category   1     2     3   1pm Observations This  
Clear Skies Partly cloudy/fog or Cloudy and/or & 24hr change morning's  
Calm winds >4hrs light wind (5-10mph) breezy (>10mph) Temperature DewPt minimum  
confidence 3 4 3              
Upper Lake 56   63   74   92 +9 44 -4 61.8  
Scotts Valley 52   62   70   88 +7 50 +4 52.6  
Kelseyville 54   64   73   91 +7 46 +5 72.0  
Kelseyville South 54   63   72   88 +5 46 +1 64.4  
Bell Hill West 54   63   72   90 +7 43 +5 57.6  
Red Hills (upper) 65   70   75   85 +6 44 +4 72.3  
Red Hills (lower) 52   63   74   86 +6 44 +6 73.1  
Middletown 58   65   75   87 +5 38 +5 65.0  
Guenoc Valley 56   66   76   89 +5 48 +3 75.7  
Napa Valley Basin 57   70   78   90 +5 -- -- 77.3  
Cow Mountain                   81 +6          
Bold is the most likely case
Tonight's POP & QPF: 0%, none Inversion strength Tonight: Moderate to Strong
Tonight's Winds: NE-Var 0-10 valleys Inversion strength Fri Night: Strong
NE-E 10-15 ridges  
EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOK
    Fri 5/16 Sat 5/17 Sun 5/18 Mon 5/19 Tue 5/20 Wed 5/21 Trends  Thu 05/22 - Sat 05/24
Weather Sunny Sunny M Sunny M Sunny M Sunny  Sunny Max Temps: Near to above normal
Max T 96-103 95-102 95-101 90-99 82-87 80-85 MinTemps: Near to above normal
Min T See Above 50-75 50-72 48-66 44-56 43-54 Precipitation: none
POP 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% WxPattern: Ridge builds across the Western US keeping CA warm and dry 
Amounts none none none none none none  
Winds NE-E 5-15 W-Var 0-15 SW-W 5-15 SW-W 5-15 W-NW 5-25 W-NW 10-25