NORTH COAST        
            Long Range Forecast      
            Issued April 29, 2008        
     
  LONG RANGE PERIOD  
      May May-Jul Summer Fall  
  Temperature Trend Equal Chances Equal Chances Above Equal Chances  
  Confidence ** ** moderate **  
                       
  Precipitation Trend Equal Chances Below Below Equal Chances  
  Confidence ** low low **  
                       
  TEMPERATURES NORMALS 1971-2000  
  temperature max min max min max min max min  
  Eureka   59 48 61 51 64 53 57 44  
  Lakeport   78 44 86 49 91 52 63 36  
  Santa Rosa 74 48 78 51 82 53 66 42  
  Napa   76 49 80 52 83 54 66 43  
                       
  PRECIPITATION NORMALS 1971-2000  
  precipitation inches inches inches inches  
  Eureka   1.61 2.49 1.42 14.52  
  Lakeport   0.98 1.34 0.69 11.47  
  Santa Rosa 0.82 1.16 0.70 10.72  
  Napa   0.75 1.04 0.58 9.24  
  Winter = Jan-Mar, Spring = Apr-Jun, Summer = Jul-Sep, Fall = Oct-Dec  
  Note: Equal chances denotes an equal probability of above, below or a near normal event will occur.  
  (**) means not applicable as a forecast of equal chances does not have a confidence associated with it.  
                       
 
Text Box: DISCUSSION: La Nina conditions persists across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. However the strength of these unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures is roughly half what it was a couple months ago . Nevertheless, this current La Nina event is likely to remain in place through spring and thus remain the dominate player in controlling climate across the United State through June. In fact most climatic models expect weak La Nina event to last through the summer, and some through the year's end. The consequences of this La Nina event continue to strongly favor above normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest (during the winter & spring) and below normal precipitation for Desert Southwest with California left as the transition zone between these two extremes. March and now April, much of the North State has joined the Central and South State in receiving little or no precipitation. Thus while storm door could conceivably reopen for the North State in May, the lateness of the season suggests it will not. For the rest of the state prospects for precipitation are even more bleak. By summer, long term climatic trends suggest a dry, unseasonably warm weather pattern for nearly all of California with the more interior locations of the state more apt to observe the greater departure from normal. Cushman